MEMO: Key Takeaways from the GOP's Victory in Virginia

What did Glenn Youngkin do differently that past candidates did not?

(On Thursday, American Principles Project released a memo discussing the Virginia election results. I wanted to share that memo in full as a substack post. You can download a PDF copy of the entire memo here.)

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On Tuesday night, Republicans notched a historic victory in Virginia — one that should serve as a blueprint for the Republican Party as we head into 2022. Glenn Youngkin, the Republican gubernatorial candidate who was considered an overwhelming underdog by political prognosticators as recently as just a few weeks ago, was able to outperform recent GOP campaigns and win convincingly. Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares similarly won their races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General, respectively. And in perhaps the biggest upset of the night, Republicans recaptured the Virginia House of Delegates. Across the board, voters emphatically rejected the Democrats in a blue state Joe Biden won by 10 points in 2020.

American Principles Project PAC played an important role in this effort. With a total spend of nearly $1 million, our campaign reached hundreds of thousands of voters with messages about the anti-family extremism of Terry McAuliffe and Democrats. Although we contacted voters throughout the state, we also specifically targeted a number of swing districts in the House of Delegates. As of today, six of the seven districts which have flipped Republican were districts we targeted: HDs 12, 28, 75, 83, 85, and 91.

In the aftermath of Glenn Youngkin’s win, both parties are now wrestling with a number of questions: How did Youngkin defy the odds and win a state that many Republicans thought had become unwinnable? What did Youngkin do differently that past candidates did not? And what does all of this say about the political state of play for 2022? Below are what I believe to be the four most important takeaways from Tuesday’s result:

1.) Youngkin Focused His Campaign on Families. It Worked.

In 2019, American Principles Project released a report: “Family First: Reclaiming the GOP’s Forgotten Constituency.” In a survey of the previous year’s midterm voters, we had found that one of the strongest predictors of voting Republican and holding conservative views was being married and/or coming from an intact family. So based on these results, we made a simple argument: the Republican Party’s future is wholly dependent on a renewal of the American family — parents are our core constituency — and thus we should make strengthening families the focus of our messaging and policymaking.

Glenn Youngkin intuitively understood this. His campaign spent the last two months focused on getting parents engaged in the process and then out to vote. The evidence for this was everywhere: Youngkin’s advertisements, his stump speeches, his platform, and even his unique “Parents for Youngkin” yard signs. As a result, Youngkin inspired Republican voters to turn out in droves, allowing him to dramatically outperform previous Republican candidates. In fact, Youngkin’s successful appeal to families may have finally debunked the myth that high turnout is inherently bad for Republicans. Indeed, in this particular race, the high turnout was driven in large part by Youngkin’s voters:

Source: vpap.org

While Youngkin absolutely crushed his opponent in rural areas, he also made significant gains in suburban Northern Virginia, a Democrat stronghold:

2.) Youngkin Fought the Culture War. It Worked.

Since its founding, American Principles Project has consistently articulated one singular idea to the Republican Party: lean into the culture war and fight. Not only is it the right thing to do, but it is also politically advantageous. Trump demonstrated this in 2016. And, by proactively challenging the Left directly on gender ideology and critical race theory in schools, Glenn Youngkin effectively followed this strategy as well.

Youngkin took advantage of several opportunities in the closing months to put Democrats on the defensive over their cultural radicalism. He embraced parents who were challenging their left-wing school boards over sexually explicit books and lesson content, making the popular case that parents should have a say in what public schools teach their children — and goading Terry McAuliffe into foolishly proclaiming in the final debate: "I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach." Youngkin explicitly promised to ban critical race theory in schools, forcing Democrats to defend (or outright lie about) their support of a highly unpopular, racist ideology. And when reports surfaced about the cover-up in Loudoun County of a sexual assault in a school bathroom by a male wearing a skirt, he immediately demanded accountability from county officials and made the protection of students a key part of his campaign.

These moves were far more than rhetorical; they had a tangible impact on the final result. For example, according to Fox News exit polling, 25 percent of voters said the debate over critical race theory was the single most important factor in the race. Youngkin won those voters by a whopping 43-point margin, which roughly translates to a 355,000 vote advantage. Moreover, a different exit poll found only 13 percent of voters agreed with McAuliffe's position that parents should have little or no say in what schools teach. Among the 52 percent of voters who said parents should have “a lot” of say, Youngkin won by 55 points.

Youngkin stood strong on other culture war issues as well. He embraced the pro-life movement and promised action on the issue: “You'll never hear me support Planned Parenthood — what you'll hear me talk about is actually taking back the radical abortion policies that Virginians don't want." On guns, when asked what gun safety regulations he would support, Youngkin was emphatic: “None.” Youngkin even stuck by his personal opposition to gay marriage, despite a barrage of attacks from the Democrats and radical LGBT organizations.

The conventional wisdom of the past has suggested that embracing the culture war is a recipe for political disaster. Throw that “wisdom” away — Glenn Youngkin proved it to be fallacious.

3.) Youngkin’s Economic Message Targeted Working Families. It Worked.

In a number of past campaigns, Republicans focused their economic messaging largely on jobs and the economy at large, choosing to emphasize the hardships on employers rather than difficulties faced by workers and families. Youngkin took a distinctly different approach. Consider this ad about inflation and Virginia’s grocery tax, which the Youngkin campaign used heavily: 

“It’s not your imagination. Consumer prices are going up, and to make matters worse, Virginia is only 1 of 13 states to tax groceries. As governor, I will eliminate Virginia’s grocery tax. Career politicians will call it radical, but to me, it’s just common sense. Because saving a little extra on milk and bread and all of this, it adds up. It’s time to make it a little easier to live, work, and raise a family here in Virginia.”

Many of Youngkin’s proposed economic solutions were simple, tangible, and family-focused. His ads often ended with the line, “Make it a little easier to live, work, and raise a family here in Virginia,” placing the emphasis on directly improving the lives of families in the commonwealth. Republicans often propose solutions that might help families as a secondary or tertiary effect — providing the basis of the Left’s “trickle down economics” attack. Youngkin focused on first-order impacts for families, and it appears this messaging move paid off. According to the Fox News exit poll, a 35 percent plurality of voters said the economy was the most important issue, and Youngkin won these voters by a 27-point margin.

4.) McAuliffe’s Attacks Failed Miserably

In the closing days of the campaign, McAuliffe attacked Youngkin primarily by trying to tie him to Donald Trump and by labeling him as extreme on abortion. Neither worked.

Youngkin deftly handled the anti-Trump attacks, refusing to repudiate the president while also staying focused on the most important issues in the race. His approach clearly worked: while turnout in counties that Trump lost was up by about 6 points from 2017, turnout in counties Trump won increased by 11 points. The pro-Trump base turned out strongly for Youngkin, and the president’s endorsement was clearly a benefit.

McAuliffe’s attempt to frighten Virginians with the specter of abortion bans also failed. Exit polling shows abortion motivated about the same number of voters (8 percent) in 2021 as it did in 2017. And among those voters, Youngkin prevailed by nearly 20 points. In addition, while Youngkin won pro-lifers decisively, 87-13, McAuliffe only won the generally pro-choice crowd 73-26. To the extent abortion was an issue in the race, it favored Youngkin. 

Republicans in 2022 should not be worried about attacks from the left on either of these issues.

(Read a downloadable PDF version of APP’s memo on the Virginia race here.)